Geographical clusters of dengue outbreak in Singapore during the Covid-19 nationwide lockdown of 2020.

Dengue, a mosquito-transmitted viral disease, has posed a public health challenge to Singaporean residents over the years. In 2020, Singapore experienced an unprecedented dengue outbreak. We collected a dataset of geographical dengue clusters reported by the National Environment Agency (NEA) from 15 February to 9 July in 2020, covering the nationwide lockdown associated with Covid-19 during the period from 7 April to 1 June. NEA regularly updates the dengue clusters during which an infected person may be tagged to one cluster based on the most probable infection location (residential apartment or workplace address), which is further matched to fine-grained spatial units with an average coverage of about 1.35 km2. Such dengue cluster dataset helps not only reveal the dengue transmission patterns, but also reflect the effects of lockdown on dengue spreading dynamics. The resulting data records are released in simple formats for easy access to facilitate studies on dengue epidemics.

Risk assessment of airborne COVID-19 exposure in social settings.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to many countries oscillating between various states of lock-down as they seek to balance keeping the economy and essential services running and minimizing the risk of further transmission. Decisions are made about which activities to keep open across a range of social settings and venues guided only by ad hoc heuristics regarding social distancing and personal hygiene. Hence, we propose the dual use of computational fluid dynamic simulations and surrogate aerosol measurements for location-specific assessment of risk of infection across different real-world settings. We propose a 3-tiered risk assessment scheme to facilitate classification of scenarios into risk levels based on simulations and experiments. Threshold values of <54 and >840 viral copies and <5% and >40% of original aerosol concentration are chosen to stratify low, medium, and high risk. This can help prioritize allowable activities and guide implementation of phased lockdowns or re-opening. Using a public bus in Singapore as a case study, we evaluate the relative risk of infection across scenarios such as different activities and passenger positions and demonstrate the effectiveness of our risk assessment methodology as a simple and easily interpretable framework. For example, this study revealed that the bus's air-conditioning greatly influences dispersion and increases the risk of certain seats and that talking can result in similar relative risk to coughing for passengers around an infected person. Both numerical and experimental approaches show similar relative risk levels with a Spearman's correlation coefficient of 0.74 despite differing observables, demonstrating applicability of this risk assessment methodology to other scenarios.

Airborne dispersion of droplets during coughing: a physical model of viral transmission.

The Covid-19 pandemic has focused attention on airborne transmission of viruses. Using realistic air flow simulation, we model droplet dispersion from coughing and study the transmission risk related to SARS-CoV-2. Although this model defines most airborne droplets as 8-16 µm in diameter, we infer that larger droplets of 32-40 µm in diameter may potentially be more infectious due to higher viral content. Use of face masks is therefore recommended for both personal and social protection. We found social distancing effective at reducing transmission potential across all droplet sizes. However, the presence of a human body 1 m away modifies the aerodynamics so that downstream droplet dispersion is enhanced, which has implications on safe distancing in queues. At 1 m distance, we found that an average of 0.55 viral copies is inhaled for a cough at median loading, scalable up to 340 copies at peak loading. Droplet evaporation results in significant reduction in droplet counts, but airborne transmission remains possible even under low humidity conditions.

Dispersion of evaporating cough droplets in tropical outdoor environment.

The ongoing Covid-19 pandemic has focused our attention on airborne droplet transmission. In this study, we simulate the dispersion of cough droplets in a tropical outdoor environment, accounting for the effects of non-volatile components on droplet evaporation. The effects of relative humidity, wind speed, and social distancing on evaporative droplet transport are investigated. Transmission risks are evaluated based on SARS-CoV-2 viral deposition on a person standing 1 m or 2 m away from the cougher. Our results show that the travel distance for a 100 µm droplet can be up to 6.6 m under a wind speed of 2 m/s. This can be further increased under dry conditions. We found that the travel distance of a small droplet is relatively insensitive to relative humidity. For a millimetric droplet, the projected distance can be more than 1 m, even in still air. Significantly greater droplets and viral deposition are found on a body 1 m away from a cougher, compared to 2 m. Despite low inhalation exposure based on a single cough, infection risks may still manifest through successive coughs or higher viral loadings.